Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
